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What good are polls on the net in political issues?

One of the parties in our home town has switched on its website an online questionnaire to one of the controversial new topics in Borgholzhausen to make in this way contribute to public opinion.

The questionnaire 'Should you think should be built according to the Hard mountain? " the SPD

Now we come in power permanently on questionnaires, in which one can express his opinion on various topics with one click. So nothing unusual.

One problem is such an online questionnaire, but if its result placed in a process of political expression, while its earnings will be accepted at face value. Especially when - is implemented, the questionnaire with the simplest of technical means - as in this case.

my view, is the questionnaire in its present form largely worthless and the currently displayed result after 2,600 votes:

• Yes, why not 20%
• Yes, even with a new market?. 26%
• No, no way.
• 48% if at all, only residential development. 1% 2% I do not care

may require any person any of the scheduled vote at the end of 6.3. in any direction distorted . Why is that and how it could perhaps do better, why should the rest of the text position.

On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog

The main problem of this type of survey is the anonymity of the Internet: The people who put a questionnaire online, do not know who clicks on their websites. To quote Or an old network saying: 'In the network nobody knows that you're a dog' ( source ).

Actually, the anonymity of the internet in such surveys is very useful: Since no one must fear to be associated with his opinion, one can increase the participation and perhaps a honest vote expected, just like a real election with polls and voting booth.

But anonymity has a disadvantage that outweighs the benefits: Since the questionnaire (or the technical system behind it) can not see who can fill it, a multiple voting can not be effectively prevented. And while no one would come up with the idea, in the general election immediately take several ballots from the pile (he / she would be prevented, hopefully by the poll workers), anyone can vote in an Internet poll as often match up the result or is it the desire leaves. choose

The only incentive "decent" are the respective moral standards and the small technical hurdle that can be easily overcome:

Small survey counterfeiters guide for beginners

prevented the in Hardenberg survey used a free service - as most such services - apparently the multiple voting: if one of its Web browser to the questionnaire later visited again, we see only the current result, but is no longer a choice. So, the questionnaire has yet realized that you have already voted. But how does he do it?

The questionnaire leaves to their own Web Browser is a small data packet, called a cookie (English for biscuit), who tells him that you have already voted. The simplest test is now the questionnaire again from another computer access, and voila, you can vote a second time. Or you can install yet another web browser on their PC. And now you can vote third time. And a fourth, fifth, sixth time

But it's also faster and with less effort than with a computer change or a software installation: You have to just delete the cookie of the questionnaire in their own browser. How this is done, one can easily figure out for each browser type on a web search . An even easier way, the possibilities for anonymous surfing browsers such as Firefox or Chrome offer. Here you can vote as many times as you want. One or two dozen votes can thus create in a minute, the time of a crime scene was so boring enough to their own opinion in the survey results to ordinary-making process.

survey forgery for professionals

But that's not the end: If someone has something more in-depth technical understanding, he can easily create a small program which automatically adjusts. This procedure may be such that the 'vote' slow and goes no further notice. More than the fact that at some point voted once more 'person' as has Borgholzhausen inhabitants.

Conclusion: The survey results have any

The just described ways to overcome the questionnaire technique are not particularly clever tricks or even illegal. There is also a sufficient number of people who can deal in this manner with web pages. Even if there is only one person has the necessary technical skills (and even in the nest Borgholzhausen is that there are competent individuals), the validity of the questionnaire is made entirely in the discretion of one person, and not as it should have been in which the entire citizenry.

The result of the questionnaire - Both the current as well as the final - it will not be allowed to draw conclusions about the actual opinions in the public, at least you can expect anyone seriously to honor the results of the survey. This makes it inappropriate for a political opinion.

How can we do better?

for all online surveys, there is always the tension between the aspects:

• anonymity of participation,
• reliability of the vote,
• effort and not least the
• representativeness

In Hardenberg survey is the anonymity high and the cost low, but the reliability described as too low. In the area of professional evaluations, which require both anonymity and reliability must be high, often use questionnaires to make use of a pseudonym: this, each potential participant in a private key that must be distributed in advance but must. Here, then, the cost is high.

As an alternative to these types of survey can be found today more and more groups in social networks like Facebook: The vote takes place here by simply clicking 'Like me' at the appropriate point. This ensures fairly reliable, that a person votes only once. However, for the barriers to participation are much higher: not only is a membership in the network, necessary to supplement the voters must be prepared at least in their attitude to their environment on the Internet to document public.

basically all you have to finally ask for pure online surveys continue the representation in question because of essential part of the population, it is not yet of course move in the network, even if Internet access are available.

Hence the time for online surveys in the political sphere has not yet come easy.

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Javascript Performance of Android browser Firefox

After last week, the future prospects of Firefox among other things had doubts because the support seems to mobile platforms so bad, us Mozilla surprised this week claiming a new beta version of the Firefox developers itself , would that come with Android browser javascript hit in all tests, while some even very clear. Since yesterday evening, finally, the Ginger Bread Update on my Nexus One was I will try this for yourself.

In the tests I have to compare my current PC browser across to the beginning and called in a couple of other Android browser to compare. In all cases the tests were performed at least three times and taken the best result. The tests with the Android browser made it in one go on the Nexus One, no other apps were launched in the meantime.

Browser / JS Test	SunSpider v 0.9.1 (smaller is better)	V8 v 6 (larger is better)
Chrome 10.0.648.119 on PC Win XP with Intel Core i5 CPU, 2.53 GHz, 3GB RAM (battery operated)	318 ms	7815
Android Browser 2.3.3 Stock	5599 ms	226
Firefox 4 Beta v 4.0b5	2843 ms	380
Opera Mini v 5.1.1	If middle	depend not feasible or extremely slow
Dolphin HD v 4.3.0	5534 ms	214
Skyfire (beta ) v 3.2.1	5781 ms	199
Mirren v 1.2	5302 ms	232

Although I had to move some problems to Firefox at all to run the V8 test (often remained the screen blank and constantly comes a warning window high), but the result is clear indeed: The Firefox is reflected well in the tests.

If now the stable version in the market is yet small errors such as the unfortunate rendering of small type could be eliminated Firefox benefit, that there is Google, due to the fragmentation of Android not the correct way with the operating system Joined browser to update. Here it may irritate many owners of Android devices with earlier versions actually make the change.



And hopefully motivated Firefox Google in this way to think of all the other issues Android also to act on his browser:)

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has a future?

"For the first time in years, energy and resources are being Poured in browsers, the ubiquitous programs for accessing content on the Web. Credit for this trend-a boon to consumers, goes to two parties. The first is Google, Whose big plans for the Chrome browser Microsoft have shaken out of its torpor competitive and forced the software giant to pay fresh attention to its own browser, Internet Explorer. Microsoft had all but ceased efforts to enhance IE after it triumphed in the last browser, Netscape sending to its doom. Now it's back in gear. "- Rich Jaroslovsky in Business Week, 25/02/2010 .

If you look in the current Web browser usage statistics by StatCounter for Europe, we see something remarkable:

Source: StatCounter Global Stats - Browser Market Share

Last December, Firefox for the first time his old rivals - the Internet Explorer from Microsoft - obsolete! Although the global statistics provides another way to and from other statistics such as those of Net Applications is the proportion of Firefox are more modest, but nevertheless this is a huge success, one at the absolute dominance IE thinks that the Mozilla community has broken bit by bit. So everything is good in Firefox at home?

is our biggest asset

If you look at the global profile of the browser distribution for the past 12 months, in addition to the permanent fall of the IE market share and the unbroken rise of Google Chrome in particular the stagnation of the Firefox share striking:

Source: StatCounter Global Stats - Browser Market Share

go seems that the IE lost market shares no longer as in previous years directly to Firefox, but mainly in Chrome. How this change is actually going on can only guess, but since Chrome has in technically-oriented sites an even higher market share may be assumed that remains a significant change from IE users held for Firefox, while Firefox among users, the much-in Web're on the road, losing Chrome.

The question at this point is the consequences of this for one of the best examples of successful open Source PRODUCT. Firefox stands before a massive crash as soon as Microsoft comes out with the IE 9 and published his ChromeOS Google?

Microsoft Firefox never took seriously and will never do

Why has Microsoft in the past few years, actually more or less idly watched as the market share of the browser's own ever declined? Because Firefox never posed a serious threat to Microsoft's business model.

only after Google's entry into the browser market, Microsoft has suddenly moved and is now on the verge with the version 9 of the IE to publish a browser that can actually claim to be in almost all relevant areas State-of-the-art or even to be a leader, be it speed, privacy and also in compliance with standards.

Why has used Google to Microsoft here wake up and send them on a path that they might never want to go? As for Google, the browser connects with a strategy that seeks to replace the cash cows Microsoft Windows and Office. This requires a browser that extremely fast, extremely safe and user-interface is very slim ago. None of these properties was true for Firefox Google Chrome was released in late 2008. Today it has

even looks were as Apple's Safari and Opera to Firefox in many places passed, all previous efforts to Mozilla's defiance. can

Not In the forceps large industry

only when you look at the browser charts give the impression that Firefox take in a pincer between Microsoft and Google gets, what Firefox has an extremely improved IE 9 they put up, behind which developers are huge resources of a company that sees itself threatened in its ureigenstens business?

How can you compete with Google, that its ubiquitous marketing opportunities using the net for a massive application of its browser, and even the cities with posters covered? Quite apart the fact that Chrome is faster, safer and easier, and is developed with incredible speed further?

It is therefore not unrealistic to assume Firefox has had absolute climax, and probably already passed. This year will probably begin the descent, which includes not only the strengthened competition and the failures will contribute in the following areas:

missed opportunity 1: The browser as operating system

Google will release a few months Chrome OS , a Linux-based operating system, which is the only application of the Chrome browser. In this system, the browser and Internet access everything, everyone used service is web based. On the other side on this platform can be no other browser installed, any OS computers sold with Chrome Chrome is a durable user more in the global market share.

Basically, the idea of a Linux system with a browser would also be well implemented in Firefox and in fact there were also smaller attempts in this regard. However, we never saw the great vision and the driving force in the Mozilla environment to create in this way a genuine counter-draft to the Microsoft world as it tried to Google now.

More likely it is Microsoft or Apple might go a similar route as Chrome and OS greatly reduced versions of their operating systems have on the market, which dominate on their own browser, of course.

Wasted Chance 2: The mobile platforms

If one mobile to Firefox seeks leads in this page of the Mozilla project. There you can download Firefox for Nokia devices. No links to Android or even IOS version. Although there is a version of Android, but it's still in beta and now plays no role. had

With the rapid rise of iPad and Android in the last year and the expected flood of tablets in 2011 one would think that the Firefox developers Field faces. But this is not the case. Instead of dominating the included Apple and Google Browser (which are also quite excellent) and Opera.

In view of technological backwardness, for example, in speed and so far limited experience with touch screen surfaces a major breakthrough here is not to be expected. Already, however, the iOS browser appears occasionally in global (and not mobile-specific) statistics, a clear sign that the mobile browser market share will affect the overall strong in the future. Here, too, so Firefox is under pressure.

problem: Who wants to work for the third best

acts Perhaps my Overly pessimistic view and it will not be that Firefox breaks dramatically in a short time, to the cycles in the development of the browser market share so far been far too slow. Nevertheless, the question is how Mozilla plans to define the long term and this may be the issue of competition for talented developers important.

Today is Firefox a leader only in very few places, so maybe in the number of available extensions. In all other respects it has surpassed its competitors, especially Google sets still faces an enormous pace in the development of its browser. And Microsoft is so not relax long as Google presents.

In an open-source project is, however, always the question whether enough people can see who find it so cool and exciting and innovative that they invest their time in it. And with Firefox raises the question why one should invest his time in a product that seems hopelessly lagging behind, and - also has no realistic chance of recovering the lead in the foreseeable future - in my view.

Here is perhaps the neglect of the mobile sector, the most damaging, taking place since the time of all the exciting things in Apps on smartphones and the "mobile first" slogan, almost has become proverbial.

Risk: All browsers in company hands

And what is so bad about when Firefox would follow the way of Netscape in the halls of IT history? Apart from a certain nostalgia, perhaps simply the fact that after all the main browsers were in company hands. It also changes very little, that Apple's WebKit and Google are all chrome browser open source. compete

As long as the big three Apple, Google and Microsoft have each other there will be development, but what if they once thought or will? Already, the debate about the HTML 5 video formats H.264 and WebM the solidification of the Web technologies in some areas that only large corporations (in competition with other big companies) can be broken up.

Maybe Mozilla will eventually only the way to the open source products industry to join, to curate them and to improve in a few places in the sense of end users. This would create a world moving from the original Pride product can no longer be much left, but it would be at least a way to stay in the game basically. It is definitely exciting ...

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Model Portfolio in options - as

The next small decline awaits us on Friday. For me it is always amazing how robust the DAX - oppose the options, time decay. It reminds me of the aging of our people. There are those who already believe to be old at 40. For many, the age of 60, a whole life and suddenly they are themselves so far and determine likely, a lot has not changed. With my "39" years, I am fitter than definitive early 20 The only difference is, unfortunately, the reduced ability to celebrate extensive celebrations. Lately I do if I allow the time and family to the after-work party in Frankfurt (€ Deli) and note that more than 2 beers and a return later than at half past no go for me.
I work during the day in a consulting company (self-promotion www.trisolutions.de) and I can imagine several meetings the next day, barely, when I have slept only 5 hours.
But otherwise I think that aging does not run fluently but uses rapidly.
So the DAX options still cost money on more than 100 points, while the March options cost only twice. The option pricing models, this behavior is well described, it still amazes me.

see from my current custodian as follows: first
Lufhansa bull calendar spread: 1 Call leg June 13, 2nd plus a 15.5 leg in March in February Put 15.
second Eon short straddle 25th
third Commerzbank short in March Put 5.6
4th Aixtron Put February 27